INTRO

2017 was another excellent year for Avory & Co. as we continued focusing on our mission of finding value in a world of innovative growth. We saw exceptional operating performance from our companies, which ultimately led to outsized returns. We attribute this success to our consistent process. Just in 2017 alone, we reviewed more than 270 companies through in-person meetings, conferences, annual reports, initial public offering documents, phone calls and other dedicated mediums. Our overall success led to exponential asset growth, fueling our future investment opportunity set. While we do not focus on calendar years, we wanted to send an updated Avory Letter as we believe the future investment landscape remains robust. We are seeing transformative innovations, legacy solutions being uprooted by software, continuous connectivity and a retail sector that is more resilient than originally perceived. Despite the encouraging innovations that are creating the investment opportunities of tomorrow,  our disciplined investment philosophy is recognizing the value of an asset relative to its future cash flows. Before we move into the themes, we wanted to thank all of you personally. We view you, our investors as stakeholders and long-term partners of Avory & Co.  To 2018 & Beyond!

THEMATIC VERTICALS

Our long-term themes

VISION

not as bad as it seems

TRANSITIONS

what's next...

IPO'S

dead on arrival

FAILURES

VISION

Long term themes

Click any theme to learn more

TRANSITIONS

It's not as bad as it seems

Amazon has woken up retail with their aggressive business model. Drop prices, provide quick shipping, offer thousands of items to consumers, and crowdsource reviews to ensure online shopping comfort. However, we do not think Amazon will eat everyone. 

RETAIL

All about distribution and content. The success of over the top media such as Netflix has completely reshaped the media paradigm. Distribution has become easier for new entrants, however quality content is expensive, and broadband is instrumental to the future of media. 

TELECOM

INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS

Companies we are enthusiastic about which could go public in 2018-2019

The median time between first funding and IPO for US venture capital backed tech companies that went public in 2017 YTD was nearly 8.9 years as per CBInsights. We think companies like Uber which is the 2nd  highest valued private company behind ride sharing company Didi Chuxing will look to go public as it is harder to raise private capital at a $48B valuation. Another interesting trend is direct listings, which Spotify already subscribed to. This will bypass typical IPO process. Dropbox continues to be an early 2018 candidate which if successful will likely set off a list of others names to follow. Below are some of the names which we believe are strong candidates to be public in the next year or two. 

FAILURES

Dead on arrival companies

The companies listed either saw significant declines in stock price, deteriorating operations, or flat out went bankrupt. The typical failure was that they were in low margin businesses and had zero economic moats. For example, GoPro manufactures hardware, but they failed to create any network amongst users. Juicero made a hardware product that did not work as advertised and charged too much.  Blue Apron’s economic model was easily replicated and the switching cost is low which is evident by their high churn rates. Some may question the Magic Leap addition here as it has not failed. The rationale is that the company has raised nearly $2B in 6 years and has still yet to create a commercial ready product. They did unveil a hardware product that will look to ship in 2018, however we think that this product will run into heavy competition. Toys R Us failed to adapt to Amazon and digital solutions, ultimately filling for bankruptcy. Pandora is a fine music service, however they failed to see the benefits offered by Spotify and Apple Music as users want sophisticated curation but also choice. These are some of the recent stories we look to learn from. 

Understanding the problem. The collapse in 2015 woke up energy investors to economics 101, supply versus demand. We asked ourselves who is creating this supply gut? The answer was the high tech oil service companies offering items such as horizontal drilling capabilities. 

ENERGY

Sources: Within the documents above there are superscripts which display sources. The sources are listed below.

1. Data traffic, Ericsson: https://www.ericsson.com/en/mobility-report/.../mobile-data-traffic-growth-outlook
2. Telehealth Patients, IHC. World Market for Telehealth - 2014 Edition: http://news.ihsmarkit.com/press-release/design-supply-chain-media/global-telehealth-market-set-expand-tenfold-2018
3. Healthcare industry revenue: U.S. Census Bureau (Quarterly Services Survey)
4. Education classroom utilization rates: http://www.nacubo.org/Documents/University%20Usability%20Resources.pdf 
5. Views on digital learning technologies (DLT) as an academic tool according to college students in the United States as of August 2016: McGraw-Hill; Hanover Research, Hanover Research. http://www.infodocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/2016-Digital-Trends-Survey-Results1.pdf 
6. Company cash and equivalents: Company financials, Bloomberg, Avory & Co summation. 
7. Share of small business owners in the United States who accept digital and mobile payment methods as of October 2017: Released November 2017, Wells Fargo; Gallup, https://assets.contentful.com/ewhhtaabqlyo/3HfsqH5Tx6a0kqEAYmAsM/ccc34b4710d4c5ff214cfaa0184b2781/Wells_Fargo_Small_Business_Survey_Q4_Final_10-11-2017.pdf 
8. Millennial preference: Harris Survey. http://eventbrite-s3.s3.amazonaws.com/marketing/Millennials_Research/Gen_PR_Final.pdf 
9. $354B IT spend on enterprise software worldwide: Gartner IT Spend.
10.  Share of consumers likely to continue with their product subscription in the United States as of February 2017, by product category: Vantiv; Socratic Technologies. https://www.vantiv.com/ 
11. 20.8m11 is the predicted number of autonomous vehicles  by 2030: PWC. https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/media/file/2017-Strategyand-Digital-Auto-Report.pdf 

 

Disclaimer: 

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Sources within this presentation are mainly through the use of Bloomberg database. However we may use other sources for illustration purposes.