Meta, Amazon, Visa, and More Confirm Our Views.

This was a big week, with earnings from some of the most important companies in the world confirming what we've been highlighting for weeks. The macro and micro signals continue to align: job growth came in at a steady +177k, the U-6 unemployment rate declined for the third consecutive month, and consumer spend trends—per Visa, Mastercard, Square, Capital One, and PayPal—remain firm. These aren’t surprises; they’re confirmations of what real-time credit card data and alternative indicators have been suggesting. We’ve been sharing those signals consistently, so if you’ve been following along, you’re already equipped to see through the noise and stay focused on the data that matters. This week we wanted to share some of the key quotes from the earnings reports.

We also saw several of our portfolio companies report this week. Mister Car Wash delivered strong results, with shares jumping 10% on the back of 6% comparable sales growth. Meta posted impressive numbers as well—revenue grew 19% year-over-year when adjusted for currency, highlighting continued strength in digital advertising. Block reported in line with our expectations. While the market didn’t seem to like it (not the firs time), April data already shows growth ahead of Q2 guidance, and execution on the Square side continues to improve. Across the board, payments remain a clear secular growth opportunity we want to invest behind.

Let’s get to the info.

Here is the summary if you want just that:

• 177k jobs added in April, ahead of the 12-month average.

• U-6 unemployment down to 7.8%, the 3rd month of decline.

• Earnings transcripts from Amazon, Meta, PayPal, Visa, and others consistently reference steady April demand and early Q2 strength

The latest jobs report showed a labor market that remains steady, not overheating but not cracking either. The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April—down from last month but still above the 12-month average—driven mostly by gains in the service sector. The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes underemployed workers, ticked down to 7.8%, marking the third straight month of improvement. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6%, suggesting more people are re-entering the workforce. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, while weekly hours held firm at 34.3. Net-net, this is a picture of a labor market that’s cooling just enough without breaking—supportive of the soft landing narrative.

Meta posted a strong Q1 2025, with revenue up 16% Y/Y (19% if you adjust for currency) to $42.31B, driven by a 10% rise in ad pricing and a 5% increase in ad impressions. Daily active users across its apps hit 3.43B, up 6%. Despite higher costs (+9% Y/Y), Meta maintained strong cash flow—over $10B free cash—and ended the quarter with $70B in cash and equivalents. Capex came in at $13.7B as the company continues to invest heavily in AI infrastructure. Meta also returned $13.4B to shareholders via buybacks. Overall, this was a healthy quarter reflecting both monetization strength and continued platform engagement. Remember Meta would be hit if economy was falling apart as advertisers would pull back.

I wanted to share this chart from Speedwell, which captures how companies evolve through different phases as products mature and consumer behavior shifts. It highlights the natural push and pull between ad impressions and ad pricing—showing that as formats like Reels scale, monetization can lag before improving. This isn’t just noise; it’s a visual reminder that execution rarely moves in straight lines. The broader takeaway: despite short-term fluctuations, Meta is building momentum through product innovation and targeted AI investment. The bigger picture matters.

I bring this up because Block is currently going through this!

Amazon on their earnings also mentioned how stable trends.

PayPal, who sees $1.2T flow through their platform saw healthy and stable trends across businesses and consumer product lines.

Block reported and while Q1 was slightly lower than expectations, this was already something we knew ahead of time. If you’ve been tracking the alt data, Q1 played out as expected—no real surprises to us atleast. What stood out this quarter was Square’s shift in guidance tone. Management embedded a more conservative stance into their gross profit outlook, not because of deteriorating fundamentals, but to reflect broader macro caution. That said, the numbers tell a better story. Square’s GPV growth exited April at 9.6% year-over-year, setting them up for high single-digit growth in Q2—clear evidence of acceleration. This is particularly notable because Square was the slower part of the business a year ago. They've since made structural changes and are now gaining share, a strong signal of execution. Looking ahead, multiple growth levers are in place: FDIC approval in March enables Cash App Borrow to expand into twice as many states, Proto is expected to launch in the second half with gross profit upside, and Cash App marketing continues to deliver strong paybacks. Proto, still early, could become a meaningful contributor—potentially the next Cash App.

Bottom line: April’s exit rate and the setup into the back half give us confidence that growth is intact.

Visa, one of the biggest payment companies continued to see healthy activity through April 21, again highlighting the health of US and global consumer.

Mastercard similar commentary.

Capital One, which we have highlighted in the past continues to see healthy activity both in spending but also the quality of the consumers balance sheets.

Lastly, Microsoft—more exposed to enterprise spending—continues to see healthy activity. AI remains a top priority, reflected in sustained investment in AI infrastructure and compute. This reinforces the view that long-term digital transformation plans are moving forward, even in the face of near-term uncertainty.

Taken together, spending remains firm across both consumer and enterprise segments. It’s not perfect—cruise lines noted slower booking windows and some airlines pointed to softness—but the broader picture is one of stability, and in some cases, improvement. This push and pull in spending behavior is likely to persist. We'll continue monitoring the data closely and, as always, adapt our view if the facts change.

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About Avory & Co.

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Avory specializes in high-conviction equity strategies, emphasizing Secular Growth and Transformation Stories driven by exceptional teams. Data guides decisions. We cater to high net worth investors, family offices, and institutional investors. Note: This information doesn't constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any mentioned securities. Avory is based in Miami, Florida with clients all across the globe.

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Disclaimer: Not a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities mentioned. This is for educational purposes only.