Our Avory Periscope is out. This is one of our most important pieces to better monitor global market conditions. Here we focus on global valuations, market technicals, sentiment readings, analyze macro data, and interpret micro information.
Below you can find some of our favorite charts from the quarter and click the link below to see the entire piece. Enjoy.
1. Streaming Search Analysis: Netflix continues to dominate the streaming space. However, we are closely monitoring online search trends to measure the competition. It is our view that YouTube TV search trends will surpass that of Hulu within the next 12 months.
2. Valuation Over the Long - Term: This chart shows how starting valuations are not a good predictor of 1-year returns, but they do help predict 7 year annualized returns. At 17x earnings, the S&P has never had a negative return over a rolling 7 year time period.
3. High Wealth to Income Ratio: Individual wealth has risen dramatically relative to broad income growth. We are at the highest wealth to income ratios ever.
4. Digital Peer to Peer Payments: Square's Cash App, PayPal's Venmo, and the Bank's Zelle are all battling for peer to peer transactions. Zelle was in the lead, however, we have seen a rapid shift in overall preference.
5. 12M Trends of Major Themes: This quarter we added in the price trends for major themes such as Cloud Computing, FANG stocks, Software, and Department Stores.
Have a nice day!
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Sean D. Emory
Avory & Co. Founder & Chief Investment Officer
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation for purchase or sale of any securities.
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