Sean D. Emory
Good afternoon and I hope you are having a great week.
The most recent jobs report is out and we wanted to share our quick thoughts and along with our Avory Jobs Report (with rating system).
The economy added 304k jobs during the month, mostly coming from the service sector (224k). On an absolute basis, this is a very strong number and suggests a somewhat healthy jobs environment. Here are some notes we wanted to share:
300k and Recessions: The 1990 recession saw its last 300k jobs print 6 months before the recession officially started, 2001 was 12 months, while 2007 was 20 months prior. Typically you do not see 300k or more jobs created. 1960 was the only time you saw a jobs print of this magnitude during a recession.
4% Unemployment: We have not seen 4% unemployment since March 2018. The low was 3.7% in September of 2018.
Four Job Losers: Four categories saw job reductions. Health and personal care, general merchandise, utilities, and information services.
Participation: The participation rate is heading higher. This month was the highest reading since 2013. The participation rate is critical to maintaining a steady pace of economic growth.
The overall reading in our view was a 7.37, which scores on the high end of neutral. The unemployment rate rising was the main detractor to the composite reading.
To see the entire report
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