Sean D. Emory
July is upon us and that means it is time to update our monthly seasonality report. Here we look at the S&P 500 over the last 50 years and decipher some of the fresh data. Here's the highlights.
Click here to view S&P 500 Seasonality Report
Fresh data highlights
1. July is up only 48% of the time, tied with September for the worst month.
2. The average return for July is .38%.
3. July is up 3 years in a row, tied for the longest streak over a 50 year period. The prior streak started in 1978 and ended in 1981 with a mere -.2% decline.
4. July 2nd is historically the 5th worst day of the month.
5. The 1978 positive July streak led to the longest negative July streak on record, which entailed 6 negative July's in a row.
6. The worst July return ever was -7.9% in 2002, the second best max drawdown for any month. December is the best at only -6% max drawdown.
7. If you only invested in July since 1968, you would just be up roughly 20%.
8. From Jan to June the market is below the typical annual seasonality.
9. The 3rd quarter is the worst quarter, in terms percent positive, up 62% of the time.
10. The 3rd quarter averages a .72% return.
Have a great July!
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Sean D. Emory
Avory & Co. Founder & Chief Investment Officer
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation for purchase or sale of any securities.
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