What companies said during earnings season.

Another long week. I’ve been on the road visiting private companies while also seeing investors. However this week, we’re getting back to the roots of this newsletter and slightly away from the direct tariff discussions: exploring data that helps us understand where the world is headed. On the macro front, initial jobless claims remain muted — a strong sign the labor market is still stable. And while some pockets like used cars are seeing price hikes, broader data continues to support our view: inflation is not a structural concern. Offsets like rising productivity, stable oil prices, and deflationary tech trends remain powerful forces.

We also dive into engagement data across major apps — a window into consumer attention and behavior. In a world increasingly shaped by digital platforms, how and where people spend their time tells us a lot. Let’s dig into the data.

Here is the summary if you want just that:

• Consumer data remains healthy.

• Earnings calls all about tariffs not jobs.

• App ecosystem engagement strong.

• Bitcoin prices driving engagement.

We continue to monitor Google search interest in “inflation” as a near real-time signal of consumer concern — and overlay it with University of Michigan’s 1-Year Inflation Expectations. As the chart shows, the two generally move in tandem, but we believe Google Trends offers a cleaner read on forward sentiment.

To my point. Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report came in soft, with Core PPI down -0.443% MoM — a clear sign that upstream pricing pressure is not just cooling, but reversing. This comes despite ongoing concern around tariffs and shipping costs.

PPI is typically a 3–6 month lead indicator for CPI. So this drop adds weight to our view: inflation is not re-accelerating, even in the face of macro noise. Input cost deflation = potential margin tailwind for producers and lower forward inflation pressure. Lots of noise out there and mmmkving parts but this is the reality today.

Recent comments from Delta and JetBlue pointed to softer demand in travel and leisure. That’s not just them — it’s showing up in the aggregate data. Credit card spending on air transportation is now down ~5.3% Y/Y.

The drop is real. But the key question is whether this signals broader consumer weakness or a normalization from post-COVID travel highs. So far, this seems isolated to airlines, not a reflection of systemic consumer pullback — especially as other discretionary categories hold steady.

This is where having a complete set of data matters. Despite the softness in air travel, overall real-time credit card data shows consumer spending is growing +1.56% Y/Y. Food and beverage stores, general merchandise, and restaurants continue to post healthy gains — indicating that most discretionary categories remain solid.

Airlines seem to be the outlier.

Another way to gauge consumer health is by tracking how many people are tapping their 401(k) accounts for hardship. In Q1 2025, that number fell for the first time in over a year, reversing a steady climb that started in early 2023. It’s a subtle but important signal — financial stress among working Americans appears to be easing. Not what you hear.

Well, the media has been talking about tariffs a lot. This has shown up also in earnings calls with a significant amount of companies brining then up.

But that conversation hasn’t been at the expense of rises in inflation discussions.

It also hasn’t led to discussions of job cuts. No job cuts = healthy economy.

Now lets get into an update I got this week for total hours spent in app purchase revenue, and average time spent per user.

New data shows the app economy continues to scale.

• $150B in in-app purchase revenue (+12.5% YoY)

• 4.2 trillion hours spent in apps (+5.8% YoY)

• 3.5 hours/day average time per user (+2.9% YoY)

  
  

Despite fewer new downloads, user engagement and monetization are climbing — signaling maturity and deeper consumer entrenchment. Good for advertisers of course.

While not central to today’s inflation or consumer trend themes, this data shows us how price action for bitcoin still drives engagement. Fresh data from Sensor Tower shows a clear behavioral loop: as Bitcoin prices rise, crypto app sessions surge. In Q4 2024, Bitcoin prices neared $75K — and crypto app engagement jumped +45% versus 2021 levels.

All in all. Healthy enough consumer. Economy continues to chug along.

More next week.

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About Avory & Co.

Investing where the world is headed. 

Avory specializes in high-conviction equity strategies, emphasizing Secular Growth and Transformation Stories driven by exceptional teams. Data guides decisions. We cater to high net worth investors, family offices, and institutional investors. Note: This information doesn't constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any mentioned securities. Avory is based in Miami, Florida with clients all across the globe.

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Disclaimer: Not a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities mentioned. This is for educational purposes only.