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Buybacks, Identity, 3% of Job Cuts AI?

  • Writer: Avory Team
    Avory Team
  • 4 days ago
  • 3 min read


Happy Friday. The week started with rising tensions in the Middle East and appears to be ending with those concerns still in focus.


For markets, the key variable is oil, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint for global supply. So far there has been no material impact on prices, and historically these events tend to have limited longer-term market effects.


On the company side, OKTA, one of our newer portfolio additions, reported strong earnings.


We also saw a wave of buyback announcements across software companies, which we expected as earnings reopened buyback windows. Lastly, labor data showed Challenger job cuts fell sharply, reinforcing the view that while the job market is not booming, it remains stable. Let’s get into it.


Here is the summary if you want just that:

  • +1.2% spending growth

  • OKTA earnings. Ai agent identity

  • Job cuts fall

  • 3% of jobs lost from AI?


This week one of the newest companies in our portfolio reported earnings: MEET OKTA


OKTA is an Identity and Access Management (IAM) platform. It verifies identities and controls who or what can access applications, systems, and data.


Historically that meant employees and customers.


But with AI expanding, AI agents and non-human identities are becoming a new category that also needs authentication, permissions, and governance. That makes identity infrastructure increasingly important.


Meanwhile the financials are improving.


Key metrics:

  • Revenue: $761M in Q4, +11% Y/Y

  • Free cash flow: $252M (33% margin)

  • RPO: $4.83B, +15% Y/Y

  • Customers >$100K ACV: 5,100

  • Total customers: 20,000+

  • Rule of 40: 41%


Profitability is improving while AI agent security is emerging as a new growth driver for identity platforms like OKTA.



Over the past month we’ve been discussing software quite a bit. Partly because many of the companies reporting are software businesses, but also because large parts of the internet, digital economy, and even areas like private credit are increasingly tied to the software ecosystem. During that period we also shared our bottom indicator, which was flashing multiple signals.


So far we’ve gotten the bounce we were expecting. Are we past the worst of the software fears, or was this just a short-term relief rally?


Let’s see if it holds.



This week we also got the Challenger Job Cuts report, and it showed a sharp decline in layoffs.


  • U.S. Challenger job cuts fell 71.9% Y/Y


That suggests companies are not aggressively cutting workers, which aligns with other data showing the labor market remains relatively stable.



There was also a datapoint showing AI only accounts for 3% of job cuts.



Here’s an update on buybacks. We spoke weeks back that we would likely see a large swatch of buyback announcements. Here’s just a handful in the last 4 hours.



Last but not least. Fiserv spend data came out. Spending continued in February.


So look likes steady consumer. Steady jobs.



Have a good weekend!




About Avory & Co.

Investing where the world is headed. 


Avory specializes in high-conviction equity strategies, emphasizing Secular Growth and Transformation Stories driven by exceptional teams. Data guides decisions. We cater to high net worth investors, family offices, and institutional investors. Note: This information doesn't constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any mentioned securities. Avory is based in Miami, Florida with clients all across the globe.


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Disclaimer: Not a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities mentioned. This is for educational purposes only.


 
 
 

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