REAL-TIME INFLATION DATA MOVES BELOW 5%
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Today, we have the latest inflation reading from Truflation, which uses real-time data from over 40 sources and over 10 million data points to measure national prices. This is a much more precise measure of prices.
Despite real progress being made, inflation concerns persist. The current reading as of March 2nd is 4.97%, falling below the 5% threshold for the first time in years. This brings real-time inflation and real-time interest rates closer to parity, using year over year data.
The recent data is even more encouraging, with 10 out of the 12 categories in Truflation showing a flat/negative trend over the last 30 days, indicating a further decrease in year-over-year inflation. However, CPI reports will still show month-over-month gains, with a 0.5% CPI and 0.45% Core CPI.
Potential Investment Implications
From an investment perspective, today's data may be mixed for day traders, but it is supportive of the Fed's efforts to bring inflation figures down. As more lagged data filters into the reports, it is expected to be supportive. Moreover, consumers' personal savings rates have doubled over the last 6 months, which further supports the economy and spending behavior.
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